OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
Josh Hawley
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Mehmed V
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
95
94
92
92
92
91
91
90
89
88
88
87
85
84
84
84
82
81
81
76
74
74
73
72
71
69
69
68
67
66
66
65
61
61
60
59
58
55
55
54
50
50
50
50
47
45
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
42
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
39
39
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
32
31
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2177
368
OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
A second cease-fire is announced
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
War Ends in June
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
92
77
66
64
62
56
49
45
44
42
41
40
38
34
33
33
32
31
31
31
30
28
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
1
0
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
Hollow Knight Silk song released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Biden gets hospitalised
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Early general elections in Pakistan
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Dodgers win World Series
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
A country leaves NATO
Phillies win the World Series
Harry and Meghan divorce
2025 hotter then 2024
Putin dies
Biden dies
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Congress repeals any tariff
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
Chuck Schumer resigns
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
Ukraine internal coup attempt
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
Putin assassinated
NATO at war with Russia
Trump assassinated
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
US-China war
A country leaves the EU
A nuclear bomb explodes
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
96
94
91
89
87
85
81
79
69
61
59
55
50
46
45
42
42
35
33
32
31
22
21
21
21
20
19
19
18
17
17
17
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
96
92
90
86
86
84
83
77
76
75
75
74
72
71
67
66
66
66
66
64
64
62
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
56
54
52
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
44
43
41
38
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
30
30
28
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
3430
292
OptionProbability
Ali Khamenei NOT killed by EOY2025
Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel claims credit within 3 months
Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel does NOT claim credit within 3 months
83
11
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
880
113
OptionVotes
YES
NO
567
18
OptionVotes
YES
NO
431
23
OptionProbability
No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri
Mojtaba Khamenei
Other
Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.
Alireza Arafi
Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).
38
16
10
10
9
8
8
OptionProbability
Donald Trump (1946)
Vladimir Putin (1952)
Bashar al-Assad (1965)
Xi Jinping (1953)
Nicolas Maduro (1962)
Alexander Lukashenko (1954)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (1978)
Angela Merkel (1954)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (1954)
Viktor Orbán (1963)
Nicolas Sarkozy (1955)
Tony Blair (1953)
Jair Bolsonaro (1955)
Narendra Modi (1950)
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (1939)
Kim Jong Un (1982, 1983, or 1984)
Mahmoud Abbas (1935)
Boris Johnson (1964)
Dick Cheney (1941)
Raul Castro (1931)
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3