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OptionProbability
US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).
Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026
Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027
Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026
A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.
The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026
US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026
US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026
Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026
The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027
US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
45
45
39
33
32
30
27
25
22
21
20
15
14
13
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
7
6
4
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours
Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days
Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days
Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck
The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days
>= 10 American soldiers are killed
>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed
A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days
Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days
Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days
Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel
Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incident
>= 50 American soldiers are killed
Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader
Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
>= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
100+ civilian deaths in Israel
Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours
Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days
Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
14
14
14
13
12
12
10
9
8
8
8
6
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Before 2027
Before June 2026
Before April 2026
Before May 2026
29
9
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
222
45
OptionVotes
YES
NO
300
33
OptionProbability
Narendra Modi
Amit Shah
Other
Yogi Adityanath
Rahul Gandhi
Nitin Gadkari
Devendra Fadnavis
Arvind Kejriwal
Mallikarjun Kharge
S. Jaishankar
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
No one before 2030
41
15
9
8
8
7
5
2
2
2
2
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
115
87
OptionProbability
Oil blockade, regime stays
Oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime stays
83
12
2
2
OptionProbability
Invasion of Kharg Island
Taking Militarized Islands near the Strait of Hormuz
Invasion of mainland Iran
Attempt at Confiscation of Nuclear Material
72
50
33
33