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Prediction markets for Kind

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.15%chance

7112083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6103

321

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Jan 15, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.72%chance

348294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

682

Will Manifold implement some kind of charity program before 2026?

Feb 25, 9:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.43%chance

253846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

488

31

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.9%chance

493627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

71

What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?

Mar 23, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

543426

OptionProbability

First Woman

Second Black

First Asian

First Hispanic

First (openly) Atheist

First Jewish

First (openly) LGBTQ

First 85 Year Old

First Native

First Arab

First Muslim

79

63

51

46

43

42

28

20

16

8

4

Will a humanoid robot provide some kind of commercial service to me by 2026?

Mar 10, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

211035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

862

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Sep 26, 5:15 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

14886

OptionProbability

Prospera

There won't be one

Praxis

Other

Neom

Akon City

San Francisco

Solano county/Flannery Associates city

65

21

5

5

2

1

1

1

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

78

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Apr 3, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.62%chance

15703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

833

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

Will I receive any kind of gene therapy created using CRISPR before I die?

Feb 7, 1:48 PMFeb 8, 6:59 AM

62%chance

12116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

133

Will "Failures in Kindness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 28, 3:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.39%chance

792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

50

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