Kind News

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.63%chance

7713715

OptionVotes

YES

7741

218

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Jan 15, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.32%chance

358546

OptionVotes

YES

1383

723

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

424583

OptionProbability

Earbuds

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Pen

Other

Phone

AR/VR Goggles

Watch

Wearable badge

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

532931

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

Military

The Rich

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

Gambling

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

Jan 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

261657

OptionProbability

Paid subscription to get extra boost on your markets

Paid subscription to get cosmetics on your avatar/markets

Paid subscription to get cheaper question creation

Paid subscription to get larger/faster loans

Paid subscription to get priority/exclusive matches in match marking on Manifold.love

Paid subscription to get news feed provided by Manifold

If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be?

Feb 24, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

281181

OptionProbability

Completely unspecified (US government confidently asserts aliens exist but provide no further information)

Microbial life (spectroscopic or mineral signatures of life in the solar system or beyond)

UFOs (sightings, disclosures)

Alien technology (extrasolar objects, piece of space junk found on Earth, ancient alien relics)

SETI (radio signals received from afar)

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Sep 26, 5:15 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

14886

OptionProbability

Prospera

There won't be one

Praxis

Other

Neom

Akon City

San Francisco

Solano county/Flannery Associates city

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

340

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Apr 3, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.62%chance

15703

OptionVotes

YES

1002

833

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

1165

825

Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?

Jun 11, 5:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.07%chance

8225

OptionVotes

YES

157

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

146

135

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Prediction markets for Kind

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be?

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

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