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Prediction markets for Kind

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.08%chance

7613599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8083

204

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Jan 15, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.32%chance

358546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

404363

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Earbuds

Other

Pen

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

34

27

24

15

0

0

0

0

What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?

Mar 23, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

563720

OptionProbability

First Woman

Second Black

First Jewish

First Asian

First Hispanic

First (openly) Atheist

First (openly) LGBTQ

First 85 Year Old

First Native

First Arab

First Muslim

85

63

62

50

46

43

28

20

16

6

3

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

532931

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

Military

The Rich

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

Gambling

40

14

12

9

9

5

5

3

1

1

1

1

If we discover time travel, what kind will it be?

Jul 7, 11:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

311112

OptionProbability

Multiverse

Fixed timeline

Other

Dynamic timeline

49

37

11

4

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Sep 26, 5:15 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

14886

OptionProbability

Prospera

There won't be one

Praxis

Other

Neom

Akon City

San Francisco

Solano county/Flannery Associates city

65

21

5

5

2

1

1

1

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Apr 3, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.62%chance

15703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

833

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?

Jun 11, 5:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.07%chance

8225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Will manifold add any kind of confirmation screen to the loan button by end of 2026

Jan 27, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.12%chance

2202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will I receive any kind of gene therapy created using CRISPR before I die?

Feb 7, 1:48 PMFeb 8, 6:59 AM

62%chance

12116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

133

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