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Prediction markets for Kind

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?

Feb 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.81%chance

7916447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7224

244

San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Jan 15, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.32%chance

358546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

425357

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Pen

Earbuds

Other

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

94

4

1

1

0

0

0

0

What kind of cars will be most sold in 2035?

Mar 8, 3:48 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

433292

OptionProbability

Normal EVs

Self-driving EVs (only non-flying)

Normal combustion engine cars

Flying cars

65

34

11

2

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

532934

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

The Rich

Military

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

Gambling

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

41

14

12

9

8

5

5

3

2

1

1

1

What will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035

Sep 26, 5:15 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

16968

OptionProbability

Prospera

There won't be one

Praxis

Other

Neom

Akon City

San Francisco

Solano county/Flannery Associates city

59

27

5

4

2

1

1

1

Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?

Apr 3, 3:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.11%chance

16953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

951

What kind of cancer does Charles III have?

Feb 8, 3:42 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

21785

OptionProbability

Bladder

Pancreatic

Other

Rectal

Prostate

Penis

literal crayfish

57

18

9

8

3

3

3

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

78

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

What kind of space mission will involve the next death?

Aug 4, 1:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

394

OptionProbability

Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station)

Suborbital tourism/test flights

Lunar crewed missions (transit, orbit, or surface)

Mars crewed missions (transit, orbit, or surface)

46

27

20

7

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

135

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