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Prediction markets for Knowles

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Oct 10, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.72%chance

221532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

940

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will AI benefit common knowledge?

Apr 13, 3:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.06%chance

18450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

885

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Oct 13, 4:24 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

27.21%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will it be common knowledge that farmed fish, eggs and chicken produce more suffering than other animal products? (2050)

Apr 13, 2:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

7127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

110

Will Michael Knowles leave the Daily Wire by the end of 2026?

Oct 23, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste?

May 2, 10:01 PMMay 2, 10:00 PM

15.96%chance

674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

110

In 2026 will people still be using the term "zk-SNARK" for uses that don't require zero knowledge?

Nov 9, 3:42 AMJul 2, 4:59 AM

49.94%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73

66

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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