Kokotajlo News
Prediction markets for Kokotajlo
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
24
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
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3
Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?
May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
82.42%chance
213066
OptionVotes
2165
462
OptionVotes
1524
197
Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
Oct 5, 4:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
161868
OptionProbability
85
68
57
52
51
50
45
44
43
39
36
34
31
31
28
20
20
8
OptionProbability
22
22
16
11
7
6
4
4
4
4
In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Nov 24, 7:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
311712
OptionProbability
40
12
9
9
5
5
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
16.21%chance
231543
OptionVotes
999
876
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.62%chance
14610
OptionVotes
1453
880
Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?
Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM
70.05%chance
10320
OptionVotes
153
65
OptionProbability
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10