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Top stories

Jimmy Lai Defence Opens, Argues Free Speech in Hong Kong Security Trial

Jimmy Lai Defence Opens, Argues Free Speech in Hong Kong Security Trial

Authors

4

1 year ago

US Armed Services Chair Wicker Visits Taiwan, Reaffirms Security Ties Amid Chinese Protests

US Foreign Policy

US Armed Services Chair Wicker Visits Taiwan, Reaffirms Security Ties Amid Chinese Protests

Authors

17

1 year ago

Taiwan Names Kung Ming-Hsin Economy Minister in Cabinet Shake-Up

Authors

4

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Hong Kong Media Mogul Jimmy Lai Remains Imprisoned Amid US-UK Criticism and Calls for Release

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Lai

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

May 23, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

114161

OptionProbability

>=150K (deceleration scenario, like 2024)

<=150K (cuts collapse, would require a near-halt in H2)

>=225K( sustained current pace; rivals 2023)

>= 300K (acceleration; AI wave intensifies)

>= 400K (new all-time high, crisis territory)

73

27

12

8

5

How many secret Lairs will come out in 2027

Jun 10, 4:09 PMJun 10, 9:59 PM

6731

OptionProbability

75 - 99

50 - 74

25 - 49

100 - 124

Above 150

0 - 24

125 - 150

52

16

12

8

5

4

3

Will Robin Hanson have ridden a batmobile, laid an egg, and made Joker run away by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.11%chance

6694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

763

50

Will the keel be laid for a third Royal Navy Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier prior to January 2030?

Apr 1, 11:11 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

5450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

39

Will a TPOT person get laid live on an X stream by 2069?

Aug 27, 8:17 PMSep 3, 8:59 PM

55.02%chance

9315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

125

Let's All Love Lain (stock)

Feb 4, 10:13 AM

8190

OptionProbability

NO

YES

195

100

Trump gets laid next by

Aug 5, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:25 PM

6176

OptionProbability

Before Q3 2027

Before Q4 2027

Before Q1 2028

Before Q2 2028

Before Q3 2028

Before Q4 2028

Before Q1 2029

Before Q2 2029

Before Q1 2027

Before Q2 2027

34

34

34

34

34

31

30

27

24

24

Will Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?

Oct 21, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.88%chance

3108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

49

Will Jose Luis Ricon get laid in 2026?

Oct 18, 2:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.11%chance

774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

If I get fired or laid off at my next job, will it be on a Friday again?

Jul 9, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.29%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Conditional on both sides agreeing to engage, what are the odds the lair can keep a fish alive longer than Zane can?

Dec 18, 5:49 PMDec 18, 5:41 PM

221

OptionProbability

Zane wins

Act of God

Other

Lair wins / ties

51

17

17

16

Will an official sequel to Niu Lai release by the end of 2031?

Nov 3, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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