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Top stories

China Steps Up Fiscal Support as Politburo Schedules October Plenum

China Steps Up Fiscal Support as Politburo Schedules October Plenum

Authors

7

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Lan

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.67%chance

18391290856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4963

3791

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14496

6492

Will James Koppel, Barton Rhodes, yoyo,Amit Deshwar, Rochelle shen, Geffen avraham, sigfig, Jacob Cole LAN party b4 2030

Sep 21, 4:41 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.12%chance

589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

71

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.96%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.72%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

82

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

Will c-haus host a LAN party by EOY2030?

Sep 21, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will agihouse host a LAN party by 2032

Sep 21, 4:46 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 30, 2025
Jul 30, 2025
China
Economics
Real Estate
China Steps Up Fiscal Support as Politburo Schedules October Plenum
Authors
7
4 days ago

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