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Prediction markets for Lan

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

47.63%chance

20061626435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4546

4139

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.06%chance

802467961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50554

11430

Will James Koppel, Barton Rhodes, yoyo,Amit Deshwar, Rochelle shen, Geffen avraham, sigfig, Jacob Cole LAN party b4 2030

Sep 21, 4:41 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.12%chance

589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

71

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.96%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.72%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

82

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

Will there be a LAN party at Mox in 2025/2026?

Oct 17, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will "Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Lan..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 31, 8:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.93%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

999

Will agihouse host a LAN party by 2032

Sep 21, 4:46 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will c-haus host a LAN party by EOY2030?

Sep 21, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Are Ashley D. Zhang and Lan Dao really really similar?

Aug 28, 6:24 PM

10

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