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Top stories

China Steps Up Fiscal Support as Politburo Schedules October Plenum

China Steps Up Fiscal Support as Politburo Schedules October Plenum

Authors

7

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Lan

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.23%chance

18391291066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4724

3983

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14496

6492

Will James Koppel, Barton Rhodes, yoyo,Amit Deshwar, Rochelle shen, Geffen avraham, sigfig, Jacob Cole LAN party b4 2030

Sep 21, 4:41 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.12%chance

589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

71

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.96%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.72%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

82

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

Will c-haus host a LAN party by EOY2030?

Sep 21, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will agihouse host a LAN party by 2032

Sep 21, 4:46 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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