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Prediction markets for Lange

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.41%chance

21791949563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4954

3804

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8478523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23744

4212

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

3610912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8923

4537

sophomore year prop bets [add answers]

Jul 29, 11:01 PMAug 31, 10:58 PM

101062

OptionProbability

get a 5 on ap calculus bc

get a 5 on apcsa

get a 5 on ap phys 2

get a 5 on ap lang

get an A in honors chem

get a 5 on apush

get a 5 on ap econ micro

get a 5 on ap econ macro

get an A in mandarin

make USAPHO

make USAMO

make USACO camp

82

78

74

70

69

64

63

63

59

55

45

16

(When) will Google's Carbon-lang be deprecated?

Jul 27, 12:37 PMJul 27, 9:59 PM

82.24%chance

17707

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1556

822

Which FOSS projects will leave GitHub in 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4325

OptionProbability

boozook/playdate

Crates.io (rust-lang/crates.io-index)

Rust toolchain (rust-lang/rust)

oven-sh/bun

15

10

10

8

Will I get a 5 on the AP Lang test?

Feb 24, 1:27 AMJul 15, 12:00 PM

66.7%chance

12143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

71

Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 23, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.94%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

102

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