LeCun News

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Dec 16, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.05%chance

232762

OptionVotes

YES

2429

825

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

1309

712

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

Dec 19, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.51%chance

231311

OptionVotes

YES

1515

919

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

5988

OptionProbability

AMI goes public by Dec 31, 2030, through IPO, SPAC, RTO, or any other mechanism on any exchange

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

YES

1026

927

Will Yann LeCun hire bodyguards by 2030

Feb 11, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.34%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?

May 16, 12:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will jurgen schmidhuber, Sam Altman, or Yann lecun be crucified for the sins committed by ALL AGI researchers?

Jan 22, 10:51 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

Will Yoshua Bengio outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Juergen Schmidhuber outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Do you respect Yann LeCun's views on AI since 2022?

Jan 20, 3:21 PM

1110

Will Elon Litman end up working for Yann LeCun?

Feb 22, 12:41 AM

LeCun News

Prediction markets for LeCun

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Prediction markets for LeCun

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Will Yann LeCun hire bodyguards by 2030

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?

Will jurgen schmidhuber, Sam Altman, or Yann lecun be crucified for the sins committed by ALL AGI researchers?

Will Yoshua Bengio outlive Yann LeCun?

Will Juergen Schmidhuber outlive Yann LeCun?

Do you respect Yann LeCun's views on AI since 2022?

Will Elon Litman end up working for Yann LeCun?

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