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Prediction markets for LeCun

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.38%chance

397182825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7291

1597

Will Y. Lecun turn AI doomer by end 2025 ?

Mar 31, 6:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.71%chance

579507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3550

749

Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026?

Mar 11, 12:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.17%chance

497844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

948

852

Yann LeCun out of Meta by EOY 2025?

Jul 2, 2:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.46%chance

195520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1972

507

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Dec 16, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.29%chance

181632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

904

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

Dec 19, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.51%chance

231310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

919

Yann LeCun leaves Meta by mid 2027

May 24, 1:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.87%chance

91118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

997

Will Yann LeCun have a cameo role saving humanity from the Daleks in Doctor Who (series 15)

Nov 6, 1:44 PMOct 1, 5:59 AM

1.76%chance

101025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

635

40

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

12166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

961

Will Yoshua Bengio outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Juergen Schmidhuber outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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