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Prediction markets for LeCun

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262614

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Greg Brockman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

51

12

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Dec 16, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.26%chance

232535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2356

830

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

Dec 19, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.51%chance

231310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

919

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.91%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

Will Yann LeCun hire bodyguards by 2030

Feb 11, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.34%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Will jurgen schmidhuber, Sam Altman, or Yann lecun be crucified for the sins committed by ALL AGI researchers?

Jan 22, 10:51 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

53

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?

May 16, 12:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will Yoshua Bengio outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will Juergen Schmidhuber outlive Yann LeCun?

Aug 28, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Do you respect Yann LeCun's views on AI since 2022?

Jan 20, 3:21 PM

1110

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