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Prediction markets for Leech

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.06%chance

81166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3996

2252

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

46.32%chance

14846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

929

Is “reasoning” mostly elicitation?

Dec 4, 11:45 AMDec 5, 11:34 AM

45.74%chance

13746

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2638

640

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

48.57%chance

10393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

972

DGG/Destiny Orbiter Empire Stability Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 4:12 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

552

OptionProbability

NO

YES

163

137

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