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Prediction markets for Left

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4973782

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will Zoro ever open his left eye?

May 24, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.49%chance

9415422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

582

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Mar 30, 2:17 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

70.52%chance

9711359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

869

Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party

Jun 20, 8:10 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

16.12%chance

695526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

795

Will TYT's Ana Kasparian star in a "Why I Left the Left" video for PragerU by 2026?

Jul 27, 8:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.99%chance

112662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

935

Will Elon Musk become left-coded again before 2035?

Feb 4, 1:46 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16.94%chance

311249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

922

How many Reform councillors will have left the Party by the May 2026 elections.

May 5, 8:27 PMMay 6, 9:00 PM

51073

OptionProbability

20 - 30

16-20

50 - 100

Other

30 - 50

11-15

1-5

6-10

47

36

5

5

4

2

1

1

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will one of the teams that left the race in 2025 start at Etoile de Besseges in 2026?

Feb 10, 5:12 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

66.59%chance

5412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1412

708

Has Elvis left the building?

Mar 7, 9:15 AMAug 16, 10:59 PM

57.61%chance

5143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

780

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.74%chance

161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

997

Left to Suffer Stock

May 15, 2:23 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

36

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