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Prediction markets for Leike

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

246962

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

40

11

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?

Jul 6, 5:20 AMJul 8, 3:59 AM

1.03%chance

236654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3801

754

Will Jan Leike be charged with violating his NDA for whistleblowing in the next 2 years?

May 15, 3:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

6.13%chance

232266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

780

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

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