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Prediction markets for Lim

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

19.73%chance

12215215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2171

993

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

82.39%chance

913738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21632

4623

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

6.94%chance

910734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20706

7842

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

74.42%chance

68609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17056

5863

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

357

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.02%chance

275885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14144

7121

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1811

587

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

51.14%chance

141756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

Nov 18, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171398

OptionProbability

No one by close date

Other

Samuel Alito

Sam Harris

Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)

Samuel Lim (Binance)

Sam Reich

Sam Jacobs (TIME)

Sam Trabucco

Samuel L. Jackson

Sam Elliott

82

7

4

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Aug 12, 12:22 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.7%chance

7837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

80

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