Lim News

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

18.86%chance

12114236

OptionVotes

YES

2251

974

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

1798

357

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.05%chance

234313

OptionVotes

YES

12657

7939

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

1811

587

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

1215

823

Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

Nov 18, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161155

OptionProbability

No one by close date

Samuel Alito

Other

Sam Harris

Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)

Samuel Lim (Binance)

Sam Reich

Sam Jacobs (TIME)

Sam Trabucco

Samuel L. Jackson

Sam Elliott

What will replace the tallest and fastest roller coaster, Kingda Ka, now that it has closed?

Nov 18, 10:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1807

OptionProbability

Mack Xtreme Spinner (survey option)

Mack Xtreme Spinner (any other shuttle)

Mack Xtreme Spinner (full circuit)

Vertical/beyond vertical LSM or LIM launched coaster (any manufacturer)

A LSM or LIM launched full circuit coaster not listed above (any manufacturer)

A LSM or LIM launched shuttle coaster not listed above (any manufacturer)

A coaster with a launch technology besides LSM or LIM (any manufacturer)

Other

Another ride (not a coaster)

Mack Stryker or BigDipper

Launched RMC T-Rex

B&M Launched Wing

Intamin Blitz/LSM

A swing launch conversion or layout extension (such as one similar to TT2)

A coaster without a launch

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

1485

674

Will Manifold allow sub-1% limit orders by EOY 2026?

Aug 14, 5:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.98%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

1426

701

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

1187

842

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

138

Lim News

Prediction markets for Lim

Prediction markets for Lim

Prediction markets for Lim

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

What will replace the tallest and fastest roller coaster, Kingda Ka, now that it has closed?

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Will Manifold allow sub-1% limit orders by EOY 2026?

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

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