Lim News

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

18.86%chance

12114236

OptionVotes

YES

2251

974

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Feb 11, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.38%chance

236988

OptionVotes

YES

1798

357

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.01%chance

255857

OptionVotes

YES

14146

7120

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

65.95%chance

64058

OptionVotes

YES

13917

7185

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

24.48%chance

171964

OptionVotes

YES

1811

587

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

1215

823

Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

Nov 18, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171157

OptionProbability

No one by close date

Samuel Alito

Other

Sam Harris

Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)

Samuel Lim (Binance)

Sam Reich

Sam Jacobs (TIME)

Sam Trabucco

Samuel L. Jackson

Sam Elliott

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

53.39%chance

4810

OptionVotes

YES

10702

9344

What will replace the tallest and fastest roller coaster, Kingda Ka, now that it has closed?

Nov 18, 10:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2808

OptionProbability

Mack Xtreme Spinner (survey option)

Mack Xtreme Spinner (any other shuttle)

Mack Xtreme Spinner (full circuit)

Vertical/beyond vertical LSM or LIM launched coaster (any manufacturer)

A LSM or LIM launched full circuit coaster not listed above (any manufacturer)

A LSM or LIM launched shuttle coaster not listed above (any manufacturer)

A coaster with a launch technology besides LSM or LIM (any manufacturer)

Other

Another ride (not a coaster)

Mack Stryker or BigDipper

Launched RMC T-Rex

B&M Launched Wing

Intamin Blitz/LSM

A swing launch conversion or layout extension (such as one similar to TT2)

A coaster without a launch

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

1187

842

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.41%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

138

Lim News

Prediction markets for Lim

Prediction markets for Lim

Prediction markets for Lim

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

What will replace the tallest and fastest roller coaster, Kingda Ka, now that it has closed?

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

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