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Prediction markets for Lin

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.62%chance

4114719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14127

7079

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Aug 13, 7:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

3810099

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7781

6334

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

Will Darline Graham run for and win Lindsey Graham's senate seat in the 2026 Senate Election?

Jul 21, 1:51 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

80.89%chance

265245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

66

Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?

Oct 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.42%chance

14332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

823

Will Lin Han (CEO of Gate.io exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Apr 28, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.54%chance

486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

58

Will mason, Jose Luis Ricon, Evan Lin, Henry Bass, adic_9, janus/repligate all get to live in a treehouse by 2027?

Jul 27, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will @adic_9, Henry Bass, Evan Lin, Chris Lakin, Claire Wang, and autism hexafluoride all live in a CABIN together?

Jul 27, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

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