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Prediction markets for Lin

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41%chance

596581935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3190

1496

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.33%chance

7512184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14806

6755

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.01%chance

359384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15278

6546

Did Tiger Zhang beat Andrew Lin on the 18.905 midterm?

Mar 22, 2:43 AMApr 20, 11:59 PM

40.28%chance

224266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

Will Tiger Zhang beat Andrew Lin on the 18.905 final?

Mar 22, 3:37 AMJun 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

31012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?

Oct 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.42%chance

14332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

823

Will Lin Han (CEO of Gate.io exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Apr 28, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.54%chance

486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

58

Will mason, Jose Luis Ricon, Evan Lin, Henry Bass, adic_9, janus/repligate all get to live in a treehouse by 2027?

Jul 27, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will @adic_9, Henry Bass, Evan Lin, Chris Lakin, Claire, and autism hexafluoride all live in a CABIN together?

Jul 27, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

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