OptionProbability
UK has a queen again
USA adds 52nd state
President with Green Eyes elected
Room temperature superconductor discovered
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Crewed mission to Phobos
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
ChatGPT 7 releases
human dies on the moon
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Human walks on mars
Blood Meridian movie release
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
ChatGPT 6 releases
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
1500 Pokemon Released
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
First Trillionaire (USD)
Chicago ends on Broadway
1300 Pokemon Released
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Trump Dies
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Human walks on moon again
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
One piece manga ends
a USA president impeached again
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Half Life 3 releases
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
The first $5T market cap company
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
79
77
77
77
74
72
71
69
68
67
66
66
65
63
62
62
61
61
59
59
59
59
58
58
57
54
54
54
53
53
52
50
49
47
47
46
45
44
42
42
41
41
41
40
38
38
38
38
37
35
35
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
27
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
20
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
10
10
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
Elon Musk
Grok 5
Nikita Bier
Sriram Krishnan
Mahmoud Reza Banki
Floki
Grok 4
Shivon Zilis
Donald Trump Jr
Omead Afshar
John Legere
Sheryl Sandberg
Steve Davis
Maurizio Barbieri
Ged Tarpey
Mrbeast
Jack Dorsey
@kache
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Jason Calacanis
@EmmettShear
54
20
5
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Mark Zuckerberg at Meta
Tim Cook at Apple
Jensen Huang at Nvidia
Dario Amodei at Anthropic
Elon Musk at Tesla
Ma Huateng at Tencent
Sundar Pichai at Google
Mary Barra at General Motors
Shantanu Narayen at Adobe
Andy Jassy at Amazon
Doug McMillon at Walmart
David Solomon at Goldman Sachs
Masayoshi Son at SoftBank
Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts
C. C. Wei at TSMC
Bob Iger at Disney
Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway
Pat Gelsinger at Intel
Herbert Diess at Volkswagen
Linda Yaccarino at Twitter
66
27
26
22
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
14
12
3
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Large Tech company announces layoffs
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
MLB World Series won by the National League team
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
Pope Francis dies
Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)
USA government shutdown
New Pope
Skate 4 Release
Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states
gpt 5 released
Nintendo Direct airs
bitcoin reaches a new all time high
joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video
new iphone releases
hollow knight silksong releases
spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025
elon musk has another child
Dutch coalition resigns
White House goes under lockdown for any period of time
any country starts a new invasion of another country
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
23andMe goes private
Assassination of an African head of state
Assassination of a North American or South American head of state
grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa
commercial airline hijacking
New CEO of Twitter
there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice
Assassination of a European or Asian head of state
Chat GPT 6 releases
Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***
Imu face reveal in One Piece
destiny talks to joe rogan
Joe Biden dies
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19
Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel
Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce
Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone
North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%
H5N1 pandemic declared
Trump threatens to deport Musk
Russia : Ukraine ceasefire
AI wipes out humanity
nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)
bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less
Starliner program terminated
chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods
Vladimir Putin dies
Donald Trump dies
Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital
tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized
The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series
Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens
Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ
Bitcoin hits $200k USD
MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers
LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype
a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers
Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table
MLB World Series won by the American League team
Jimmy Carter dies
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year
Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
62
50
45
34
19
14
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
@JamesGrugett - Manifold Markets - 2024
@JamesGrugett - Manifold Markets - 2025
Linda Yaccarino - X/Twitter - 2025
Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway - 2025
Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2025
Elon Musk - Tesla - 2025
Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2024
Elon Musk - Tesla - 2024
Linda Yaccarino - X/Twitter - 2024
Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway - 2024
Andrew R. Jassy - Amazon - 2024
100
100
100
79
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
223
45
