Lisa News

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Yu Deng

Jack Thorne

Sam Raskin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tom Hutchcroft

Other

Yibo Gao

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

John Pardon

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Maria Colombo

Noé Cruchet

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Javier Fresan

yunqing tang

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Supreme Court hears arguments or makes ruling on the incident before 2026

Cook resigns

YES

YES

YES

YES

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

YES

YES

NO

NO