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Prediction markets for Lively

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85%chance

1821110393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

797

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.93%chance

118393088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

1436

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.86%chance

218113073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

1228

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Nov 18, 2:49 PMOct 16, 10:59 PM

12.71%chance

12796428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

1725

Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?

Feb 13, 7:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.26%chance

18954821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21432

7687

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

10.35%chance

3442887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

917

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.92%chance

2820856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6124

5575

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

42.55%chance

513369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

815

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

30.52%chance

323226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

664

Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?

Aug 22, 11:03 PMDec 1, 12:59 AM

62.43%chance

251389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5350

4932

Share of world population living in autocracies in V-Dem's 2040 report?

Oct 12, 12:36 PMOct 12, 1:29 PM

00

OptionProbability

Above 0%

Above 10%

Above 20%

Above 30%

Above 40%

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 80%

Above 90%

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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