Liz Cheney News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jimmy Kimmel

Jack Smith

The New York Times (NYT)

Solar Energy

Miles Taylor

Stephen Colbert

John Bolton

James Comey

John Brennan

Zohran Mamdani

National Institutes of Health

Leakers

Panama

JB Pritzker

Wind Energy

Any professional sports league

Alexander Vindman

The Atlantic

Wikipedia

Bruce Springsteen

Denmark

Ann Selzer

John Kelly

Michael Cohen

Seth Myers

Nancy Pelosi

Bill Barr

Vaccine mandates

the National Archives

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Mariann Edgar Budde

Progressive YouTube Influencers

Ken Klippenstein

The American Medical Association

Christopher Steele

Jezebel (website)

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

TIME magazine

Public Libraries

Jeff Bezos

Emmanuel Macron

Narendra Modi

Any Manifold User

Taylor Swift

E. Jean Carroll

Fluoride

Tucker Carlson

Disney

Joe Biden

Beyoncé

The American Psychiatric Association

Steve Wynn

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

Brad Raffensperger

WIRED Magazine

Any fashion or cosmetics brand

Liz Cheney

Greenland

American sign language signers or interpreters

BlueSky

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Mike Pence

The San Diego Zoo

Barack Obama

Russell Vought

Pete Hegseth

Democratic Republic of the Congo

SSRIs

Black Nationals

Rosie O'Donnell

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

Julia Galef

Scott Alexander

Zvi Mowshowitz

Paul Christiano

Randall Munroe

Josh Shapiro

Jon Stewart

Peter Singer

@SemioticRivalry

Dwarkesh Patel

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Sam Wendover

Spencer Greenberg

Tammy Duckworth

Kamala Harris

Emmanuel Macron

Andrew Yang

Jared Polis

Manifold Joshua

J. B. Pritzker

Satya Nadella

Aella

Katie Porter

Andrew Wiles

Andy Beshear

Gavin Newsom

@Mira

Garry Kasparov

MrBeast

William Mc Askill

Vermin Supreme

Eric Schmidt

Magnus Carlsen

Bill Gates

Raphael Warnock

Mark Cuban

Justin Trudeau

Bernie Sanders

Gordon Ramsay

@strutheo

Bryan Caplan

Ursula von der Leyen

Bill Maher

Manifold James

Sam Altman

Michael Bloomberg

Al Gore

Bryan Cranston

Kathy Hochul

Cory Booker

Blake Huber

Taylor Swift

Mitt Romney

A randomly selected active Manifold user

Manifold Austin

Jose Luis Ricon

Linus Torvalds

Warren Buffett

Keanu Reeves

Ray William Johnson

Cory Doctorow

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LeBron James

Zach Robinson

Nikil Saval

Ding Liren

@ZacParker

SCP-999

Stannis Baratheon

Alexandr Wang

Tim Cook

Liu Bei

Jeff Bezos

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Destiny

Cao Cao

Guillaume Verdon

Emma Watson

Oprah

Rick Astley

Peter Thiel

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jimmy Carter

Anatoly Karpov

Rishi Sunak

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Anthony Fantano

Javier Milei

Nikki Haley

Sundar Pichai

Brian Tomasik

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Mark Zuckerberg

Prince Harry

Jeb "Please Clap" Bush

Hunter Biden

Vivek Ramaswamy

Liz Cheney

Elon Musk

Yann Lecun

A randomly selected banned Manifold user

Joe Rogan

Tucker Carlson

Ivanka Trump

Jordan Peterson

Ben Shapiro

Sam Bankman-Fried

J. D. Vance

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Brian Kemp

Josh Hawley

Doug Burgum

Will Hurd

Donald Trump Jr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Cotton

Rick Scott

Todd Young

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Chris Sununu

Elise Stefanik

Vivek Ramaswamy

Franciz Suarez

Mike Johnson

Greg Abbott

Byron Donalds

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Mike Lee

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Mike Pompeo

Tulsi Gabbard

Liz Cheney

Other/none of the above

Tulsi Gabbard

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Stacey Abrams

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Liz Cheney

Joni Ernst

Hillary Clinton

Sarah Palin

Condoleezza Rice

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marianne Williamson

YES

Gavin Newsom

Other

AOC

Pete Butigieg

Josh Shapiro

Jb Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Cuban

Cory Booker

Mark Cuban

Darkhorse Celeb (Ex Lebron, Taylor Swift, Oprah)

Liz Cheney

Tim Walz

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Joe Manchin

Amy Klobuchar

Marianne Willamson

Andrew Yang

Bernie Sanders

Michael Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren

Jon Stewart

Other

Noam Chomsky

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Vivek Ramaswamy

Jimmy Carter

Gavin Newsom

Gretchen Whitmer

JD Vance

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stephen A. Smith

David Hogg

Spencer Cox

Jeff Jackson

Liz Cheney

Tucker Carlson

Tim Ferriss

Taylor Swift

Michelle Obama

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Chuck Norris

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Other

Kristi Noem

Nikki Haley

Marco Rubio

Ron de Santis

Pete Buttigieg

Mike Pompeo

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Shapiro

Spencer Cox

Erika Kirk

Elizabeth Warren

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kari Lake

JB Pritzker

Peter Thiel

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Rand Paul

Raphael Warnock

Beto O'Rourke

Donald Trump Jr

Ivanka Trump

Tammy Duckworth

Cory Booker

Hunter Biden

Nobody, AGI kills everyone

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Amy Klobuchar

Liz Cheney

Tom Cotton

Ben Sasse

Kanye West

Pete Davidson

Joe Rogan

Bernie Sanders

Ted Cruz

Elon Musk

Hakeem Jeffries

Destiny

Jared Polis

Stacey Abrams

Mitt Romney

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Tim Walz

Julian Castro

John Bolton

Letitia James

Fani Willis

Any sitting Democratic elected official

Lisa Cook

Adam Schiff

Jack Smith

Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case

George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership

Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden

Liz Cheney

Hunter Biden

Other

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsome

Marco Rubio

Gretchen Whitmer

Pete Buttigieg

Raphael Warnock

Mark Kelly

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Nobody

Joe Biden

Cory Booker

Andrew Yang

Chris Sununu

Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Scott

Greg Abbott

Mike Pence

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Josh Hawley

Stacey Abrams

Ayanna Pressley

Jared Polis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elizabeth Warren

Amy Klobuchar

Antony Blinken

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Deval Patrick

Beto O'Rourke

Eric Adams

Bill de Blasio

Steve Bullock

Julián Castro

Bernie Sanders

Liz Cheney

Michelle Obama

Andy Beshear

Roy Cooper

Ro Khanna

Gina Raimondo

Mitt Romney

Tom Cotton

Rand Paul

Chris Christie

YES