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Prediction markets for Locke

SpaceX Market Cap after Lock Up Period?

May 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 5:16 AM

43100

OptionProbability

2.0T - 2.499T

1.75T - 1.999T

2.5T - 2.999T

1.5T - 1.749T

1.25T - 1.499T

3T - 3.999T

Other

1.0T - 1.249T

0.75T - 0.999T

Below 0.5T

0.5T - 0.749T

27

20

19

14

4

4

4

3

2

1

1

Will Ben Goldhaber win his provably unpickable lock bet

Sep 21, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.48%chance

262660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2776

360

When will Blue Lock (Manga) conclude?

Jan 10, 5:43 PMJan 18, 4:59 AM

62125

OptionProbability

Other

2026 Q3/Q4

2027 Q1/Q2

2027 Q3/Q4

2024 Q1/Q2

2024 Q3/Q4

2025 Q1/Q2

2025 Q3/Q4

2026 Q1/Q2

81

4

4

4

1

1

1

1

1

How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?

Apr 27, 2:03 AMJan 2, 3:00 AM

61421

OptionProbability

4.5 months to 8.5 months

8.5 months to 14.5 months

Less than 1.5 months

1.5 months to 4.5 months

More than 14.5 months

32

23

21

19

5

Will CPython still have a global interpreter lock in 2030

May 12, 6:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.78%chance

171336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

857

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will Artificial Super Intelligence lock in values humans generally come to disagree with?

Aug 20, 9:40 AMJan 20, 10:37 AM

51.28%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

995

Will I lock in for A-level maths??

Sep 14, 8:06 PMSep 30, 9:00 AM

86.21%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

54

22

6

6

6

6

Will there be a basic State Pension increase below the Triple Lock level by the next UK general election after 2025?

Aug 20, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

If this party wins the next election after 2024, will the Triple Lock pension be scrapped by the election after?

Aug 20, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Reform

Conservatives

Green

Liberal Democrats

Labour

63

50

50

50

37

Will "The consequences of locking intelligence away..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 7:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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