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Prediction markets for Lores

When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?

Sep 18, 8:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2923084

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

28

17

4

0

0

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Status of the Wentworth-Lorell conjecture in 2026

Jan 10, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31607

OptionProbability

Proven

Not resolved before 2027

Disproven

Proven independent of ZFC

42

41

13

5

Will "HPMOR: The (Probably) Untold Lore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 10:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.55%chance

9412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

844

Will Nintendo use LLM to generate lines for Luigi or Waluigi in any video game before 2033?

Mar 14, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

9200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

100

Dwarf fortress uses an LLM or AGI to generate better lore for the world by mid 2028

Jan 3, 6:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

17%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

119

Will Wired retract or amend Taylor Lorenz's article on Chorus by the end of 2027?

Mar 11, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will Taylor Lorenz have kids/a family by EOY 2033?

Nov 25, 2:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.82%chance

2115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

Will Marc Lore's planned city of Telosa begin construction before 2030?

May 1, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.35%chance

6104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Is Lorentz invariance exact?

Dec 31, 3:11 PMJan 1, 3:06 PM

63.87%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Assuming discovery in the next 10 years Will the first proved Aliens discovered resemble "Grays" or Ebbens lore?

Nov 7, 5:32 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

40.34%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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