Lose News

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

75.21%chance

14177208

OptionVotes

YES

1696

507

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

2716

1411

Will Vladimir Putin lose political power in Russia before 2026?

Sep 7, 10:59 PMDec 30, 11:53 PM

10%chance

6112839

OptionVotes

YES

2741

561

Will the United Kingdom lose any land in the 2020s? 🇬🇧🗺️✌️

Feb 18, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.77%chance

459246

OptionVotes

YES

2260

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

17089

5852

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

40.49%chance

397876

OptionVotes

YES

1212

825

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

515944

OptionProbability

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

Aliens

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

65.92%chance

84627

OptionVotes

YES

1391

719

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

4842

207

If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?

Mar 2, 7:55 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

61.2%chance

353088

OptionVotes

YES

1256

796

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

422978

OptionVotes

YES

1394

1107

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45%chance

8343

OptionVotes

YES

2092

1915

Lose News

Prediction markets for Lose

Prediction markets for Lose

Prediction markets for Lose

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Will Vladimir Putin lose political power in Russia before 2026?

Will the United Kingdom lose any land in the 2020s? 🇬🇧🗺️✌️

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

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