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Prediction markets for Luís Figo

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2025?

Mar 25, 1:47 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

37.45%chance

7810523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

705

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?

Apr 8, 5:39 PMApr 15, 9:59 PM

65.85%chance

361708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1510

524

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

72.2%chance

231492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1601

628

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

Apr 1, 3:41 PMApr 8, 9:59 PM

63.72%chance

251126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

539

When will the Big One earthquake happen in the San Andreas Fault?

Jan 11, 3:14 PMJan 18, 10:59 PM

51097

OptionProbability

2040 or after

2030-2034

2035-2039

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

59

11

11

4

4

4

4

3

Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?

Jul 1, 2:33 PMJul 2, 2:27 PM

6987

OptionProbability

Google / Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

Deepseek

X / Grok

Meta

Other

Mistral

Alibaba

Microsoft

38

35

9

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

Will total solar capacity exceed 6TW at the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 8:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

91.8%chance

8364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

412

94

Will Oppenheim's unified theory of gravity and quantum mechanics pass the test?

Dec 5, 11:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.02%chance

10306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

125

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.36%chance

6181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

124

Will Chinese EV make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027?

Jan 21, 8:57 PMJan 28, 10:59 PM

88.55%chance

3140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

53

Will it be possible to charge an EV for free when prices are negative in France by 2026?

Nov 4, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

21

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.97%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

187

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