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Luis Patiño News

    Prediction markets for Luis Patiño

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12882928504

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Mr. Beast

    Barack Obama

    Gwern Branwen

    Donald Trump

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Robert Caro

    Kamala Harris

    Jensen Huang

    Sarah Paine

    Sam Altman

    Narendra Modi

    Joe Biden

    JD Vance

    roon

    Geoffrey Hinton

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Terence Tao

    Ilya Sutskever

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Tim Cook

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Buffett

    Taylor Swift

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    pope Francis

    Scott Alexander

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Peter Thiel

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    16

    13

    11

    10

    10

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

    May 6, 3:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    13981289

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Pierbattista Pizzaballa

    Luis Antonio Tagle

    Mykola Bychok

    Lazarus You Heung-sik

    Pietro Parolin

    José Tolentino de Mendonça

    Robert Prevost

    Donald Trump

    No one

    Giorgio Marengo

    Francis Leo

    Paulo Cezar Costa

    Américo Aguiar

    François-Xavier Bustillo

    Joe Biden

    82

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Top Scorer UEFA Champions League 2025/26

    Dec 10, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    229647

    OptionProbability

    Kylian Mbappé

    Gabriel Martinelli

    Harry Kane

    Erling Haaland

    Julián Alvarez

    Marcus Rashford

    Victor Osimhen

    Lautaro Martínez

    Lamine Yamal

    Luis Díaz

    99

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

    Nov 9, 4:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    206564

    OptionProbability

    Alexi Giannoulias

    Brandon Johnson

    Susana Mendoza

    Maria Pappas

    Mike Quigley

    George Cardenas

    Matt Brewer

    Other

    Liam Stanton

    Bill Quinlan

    Paul Vallas

    Brendan Reilly

    Joe Holberg

    Kam Buckner

    Rahm Emanuel

    Janice Jackson

    Brian Hopkins

    Silvana Tabares

    Gil Villegas

    Bill Conway

    Anna Valencia

    Joe Ferguson

    Luis Gutiérrez

    Lisa Madigan

    John Kelly

    Andre Vasquez

    Chuy Garcia

    Willie Wilson

    Lori Lightfoot

    Sophia King

    Ja'Mal Green

    Roderick Sawyer

    Toni Preckwinkle

    Bill Daley

    35

    9

    9

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the first pitcher to throw a solo no-hitter in the 2026 MLB season?

    Jan 15, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    122127

    OptionProbability

    NO SOLO NO-HITTER IN 2026

    Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers)

    Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox)

    Other

    Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals)

    Emerson Hanconck (Seattle Mariners)

    Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins)

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LA Dodgers)

    Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

    Cole Ragans (Kansas City Royals)

    Max Fried (New York Yankees)

    Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants)

    Reid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels)

    Dylan Cease

    Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers)

    Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)

    Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners)

    Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays)

    Nolan McLean (New York Mets)

    Bubba Chandler (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees)

    Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians)

    Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)

    Carlos Rodón (New York Yankees)

    Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)

    Luis Castillo (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox)

    Corbin Burnes (Arizona Diamondbacks)

    Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees)

    Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

    Roki Sasaki (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    47

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

    Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    22638

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Luis Fonsi

    BLACKPINK

    Discord

    Wiz Khalifa

    Psy

    Ed Sheeran

    Mark Ronson

    51

    20

    18

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Who will win Mexico's 2030 presidential election?

    Mar 30, 5:57 AMJul 3, 11:59 PM
    1537

    OptionProbability

    Omar García Harfuch

    Samuel García

    Marcelo Ebrard

    Ricardo Salinas Pliego

    Gerardo Fernández Noroña

    Clara Brugada

    Ricardo Anaya

    Lilly Téllez

    Alejandro "Alito" Moreno

    Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

    Manolo Jiménez

    Jorge Álvarez Máynez

    Andrés Manuel López Beltrán

    Alessandra Rojo de la Vega

    Enrique de la Madrid

    Mauricio Kuri

    Other

    Ildefonso Guajardo

    Jorge Romero Herrera

    María Eugenia Campos Galván

    Damián Zepeda

    13

    8

    7

    7

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    [Hololive 6th Generation] Which talent will leave Hololive last?

    Jan 23, 9:56 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    1410

    OptionProbability

    La+ Darknesss

    Takane Lui

    Hakui Koyori

    Kazama Iroha

    Sakamata Chloe

    40

    19

    19

    19

    1

    Which Youtube account will have the most liked video at the end of 2030?

    Apr 8, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    10254

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Mr Beast

    Luis Fonsi

    Pinkfong

    BTS

    Wiz Khalifa

    51

    22

    7

    7

    7

    7

    Who is manifold's funniest user?

    Jan 12, 10:53 PMDec 31, 10:52 PM
    5103

    OptionProbability

    Jose Luis Ricon

    ramen

    Other

    chris (strutheo)

    AustinChen

    43

    17

    16

    12

    12

    Who does manifold markets love more between them: Jimmy Carter, Jose Luis Ricon, or Alexey guzey

    Sep 29, 11:24 PMOct 7, 4:59 AM
    1100

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Jimmy Carter

    Jose Luis Ricon

    Alexey guzey

    63

    28

    4

    4

    Who will win Nuevo Leon's 2027 Gubernatorial Election?

    Mar 16, 1:03 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM
    266

    OptionProbability

    Waldo Fernandez Gonzalez

    Clara Luz Flores

    Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

    Mariana Rodríguez Cantú

    Tatiana Clouthier

    Fermando Margain Sada

    Adrian de la Garza Santos

    Andrés Mijes Llovera

    Other

    Cesar Garza Villarreal

    Carlos de la Fuente Flores

    Daniel Carrillo Martínez

    Héctor García García

    Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal

    14

    13

    9

    9

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

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