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Prediction markets for Machi

Steam Machine 512GB base SKU price?

Nov 12, 9:08 PMJul 1, 12:00 AM

163117434

OptionProbability

$750–$999

$500–$749

$1000–$1499

$400–$499

$0–$199

$200–$299

$300–$399

Above $1500

73

22

3

1

0

0

0

0

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

4912299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.33%chance

653808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

807

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.93%chance

20701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

876

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.5%chance

3262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

914

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

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