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Prediction markets for Majors

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.22%chance

441121733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3797

2487

A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?

Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.84%chance

289119599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14110

7779

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14347

7601

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.55%chance

14617629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10157

9791

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.46%chance

1910420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17436

7002

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.11%chance

197235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15224

6573

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32%chance

196935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14577

6860

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14631

6838

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10868

9165

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