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Prediction markets for Majors

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

16273511

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

27

26

15

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

9.49%chance

4323225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30783

3099

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

11822685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4012

1368

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.13%chance

221550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31548

3170

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14347

7601

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

14818058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10070

9929

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

2813301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20647

4843

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5312290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19219

7438

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

20.22%chance

3511669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19862

5039

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

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