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Prediction markets for Majors

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.26%chance

456133058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

2716

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

225114087

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Other

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

19

14

12

11

10

6

6

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.39%chance

4635214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38284

2612

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

8.29%chance

5830374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33270

3010

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

3619507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14871

7405

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

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