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Prediction markets for Manifold

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.71%chance

4711143855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11756

7379

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1447

1232

Will manifold shrink from start of 2025 to 2030?

Feb 15, 9:51 AMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

31.79%chance

2221820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14447

7010

Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4619185

OptionProbability

At least 2,000

At least 5,000

At least 10,000

At least 20,000

91

73

35

23

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.56%chance

8612333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

1267

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

26%chance

329742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16872

5927

Manifold Stock (Permanent)

Jan 2, 10:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

449479

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1100

893

Manifold Staffs Stocks

Mar 27, 8:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

183406

OptionProbability

@SG (Stephen Grugett)

@Conflux

@Gen

@Austin

@SirSalty (David Chee)

Other

@JamesGrugett

@ian

@Sinclair

Marshall Polaris

@Joshua

Alice Pang

68

10

8

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.25%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

19

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