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Prediction markets for Manifold

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48%chance

4531094477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11267

7882

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662260

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

35

28

14

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Nov 3, 6:25 PMDec 31, 5:55 PM

50%chance

12985786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.6%chance

6864891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46861

749

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Sep 15, 6:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

4744901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32085

5111

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

732991

OptionProbability

500

600

700

731 (two years)

800

900

1000

450

1096 (three years)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

Will manifold shrink from start of 2025 to 2030?

Feb 15, 9:51 AMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

32.11%chance

2120257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14339

7061

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.77%chance

8311673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

1201

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

38.76%chance

193967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12570

7955

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

858

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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