Marcos Ramírez News

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

No 2028 Election

Josh Shapiro

Jon Ossoff

AI Overlord

Andy Beshear

Tim Walz

Donald Trump Jr

JB Pritzker

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Abigail Spanberger

Ro Khanna

Rahm Emmanuel

Brian Kemp

Michelle Obama

Ron DeSantis

Joe Rogan

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Ted Cruz

Amy Klobuchar

Kanye West

Hunter Biden

Mike Pence

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Bernie Sanders

Greg Abbott

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Glenn Youngkin

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Tim Scott

Mitch Landrieu

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ruben Gallego

Katie Porter

Joe Biden

Tucker Carlson

Wes Moore

Ration L. Ussy

Mark Cuban

RFK Jr.

Tetraspace

Lina Khan

Shawn Fain

Elon Musk

Ritchie Torres

Taylor Swift

Barack Obama

Chris Murphy

Stephen A. Smith

Mickey Mouse

Laura Loomer

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Tulsi Gabbard

Al Gore

Kathy Hochul

[deleted]

Josh Hawley

Ezra Klein

Tim Kaine

invalid

David McCormick

Andrew Yang

Anna Paulina Luna

Amaryllis Fox

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Mike Johnson

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Jamie Dimon

Abrego Garcia

Andrew Cuomo

Chris Van Hollen

Invalid

invalid

Deval Patrick

Jasmine Crockett

Oprah Winfrey

Sheldon Whitehouse

Robert Prevost

Harambe

Josh Stein

Jeff Jackson

Rand Paul

Vivek Ramaswamy

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

No 2028 Election

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump Jr.

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Tulsi Gabbard

Andy Beshear

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elon Musk

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tucker Carlson

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Mike Gallagher

Raphael Warnock

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump, Sr

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Ron Desantis

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Kristi Noem

None

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Josh Hawley

Steven Mnuchin

Brian Kemp

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

AOC (NY Representative)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (US SoS)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Donald Trump (45th President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Cory Booker (NJ Senator)

Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)

Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Stephen A. Smith

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Sr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Glenn Youngkin

Ron Desantis

Ted Cruz

Nick Fuentes

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Greg Abbott

Tulsi Gabbard

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Hollow Knight Silk song released

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Dodgers win World Series

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Chuck Schumer resigns

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

Harry and Meghan divorce

Early general elections in Pakistan

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

US-China war

Biden gets hospitalised

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Congress repeals any tariff

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

A country leaves NATO

NATO at war with Russia

A nuclear bomb explodes

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

Trump assassinated

2025 hotter then 2024

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Putin assassinated

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Putin dies

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Biden dies

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

A country leaves the EU

Phillies win the World Series

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

J. D. Vance

Josh Shapiro

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Pete Buttigieg

J. B. Pritzker

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Hawley

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Glenn Youngkin

Jon Ossoff

Jeff Jackson

Ron DeSantis

Wes Moore

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Elise Stefanik

Cory Booker

Spencer Cox

Donald Trump Jr.

Brian Kemp

Amy Klobuchar

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Katie Hobbs

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Mark Cuban

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Tom Cotton

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Catherine Cortez Masto

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Kevin Stitt

Tate Reeves

Tim Walz

Ivanka Trump

Stephen Miller

Erika Kirk

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tim Scott

Joe Rogan

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Andrew Yang

Beto O'Rourke

Mark Kelly

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Ruben Gallego

David Hogg

Kamala Harris

Will Hurd

Tulsi Gabbard

Dan Crenshaw

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Maura Healey

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Tucker Carlson

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mike Pence

Mitt Romney

Stephen Colbert

Joe Manchin

Al Gore

DUPLICATE

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Sarah Palin

Jon Stewart

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

J.D. Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Marco Rubio

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Tucker Carlson

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Ron Desantis

John Ossoff

Tim Walz

Andy Beshear

Donald Trump Jr

Andrew Cuomo

Cory Booker

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Nikki Haley

Greg Abbott

Tim Scott

Raphael Warnock

Amy Klobuchar

Jared Polis

Joe Biden

Michelle Obama

Hillary Clinton

Glenn Youngkin

Robert Kennedy Jr.

Doug Burgum

Mike Gallagher

Roy Cooper

Shawn Fain

Tulsi Gabbard

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Mark Cuban

Tim Kaine

Andrew Yang

Trump at least briefly appears to have a change of heart on Mamdani, his ideology or his policies

Trump does nothing to spite Mamdani

Trump and Mamdani shake hands during the meeting?

Trump compliments Mamdani

Israel is mentioned

Anti-semitism is mentioned

Trump says “affordability” during meeting

Trump deploys ICE in NYC

Trump refuses to grant Mamdani a security clearance

Trump pauses all federal funding to NYC

Trump will blow Mamdani

Trump says Kwame during meeting?

Trump gets Excited about Buses

Jd Vance is at the meeting

Trump mispronounces Mamdani's name

Marco Rubio is at the meeting

Mamdani compliments Trump

Trump says “communist” or “communism”

Other

Donald Trump Jr.

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump

Tim Scott

Doug Burgum

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Eric Trump

Ivanka Trump

Ron DeSantis

Greg Abbott

Other

Doug Burgum

Marco Rubio

Ivanka Trump

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.