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Prediction markets for Marcus

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

350125800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2566

1866

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

95.76%chance

11745339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4614

1347

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.25%chance

9444946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7335

4553

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.31%chance

9025606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3919

917

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1618

741

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2618842

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

86

80

80

76

72

65

55

53

51

35

31

27

10

4

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.79%chance

11415066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

1002

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.09%chance

9914436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

877

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

16

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.48%chance

413065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

824

Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?

Jan 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.22%chance

142596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

627

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