Marcus News

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

YES

2199

2191

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.89%chance

11979293

OptionVotes

YES

5951

4909

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

12754708

OptionVotes

YES

1679

1079

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3732068

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

YES

1872

1109

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

YES

1813

773

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.01%chance

11615266

OptionVotes

YES

1763

1202

Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

Dec 21, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

397833

OptionProbability

Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.

No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

5494

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

27.85%chance

363784

OptionVotes

YES

997

978

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.22%chance

443615

OptionVotes

YES

2380

769

Marcus News

Prediction markets for Marcus

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

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