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María Alejandra Díaz News

    Prediction markets for María Alejandra Díaz

    OptionProbability

    At least one person who gets targeted by this rule will turn out to be cisgender / not trans (will N/A if nobody gets targeted)

    At least one bathroom incident in Kansas will be reported on social media (eg Bluesky) or news source

    Public sanctimony. Private indulgence. One or more of the architects are found to be hypocrites and engaging in projection, and are doxed revelling in flagrante delicto in the very non-normative intimacies they seek to criminalise.

    The bill will be vetoed by Gov. Laura Kelley or her office

    The bill will be (at least temporarily) halted by courts in 2026. (Resolves N/A if bill killed before taking effect.)

    The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority. (Resolves N/A if no veto)

    There are any social media or news reports of bathroom guards, inspections, or enforcement systems in Kansas in connection with gender

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and will lead to an attempted prosecution

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and lead to an attempted prosecution, that will lead to a bounty payout or settlement

    At least one person will have their government ID confiscated or revoked, as reported on social media or news

    We can find reporting that tourism in Kansas in 2026 will drop by at least 5%, and this bill is named as a potential contributor in that reporting

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