Mario Martín News

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Fold a paper airplane

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Make correct Truchet tiles

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

Ilia Topuria

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Malcolm Wellmaker

Jacobe Smith

Azamat Murzakanov

Navajo Stirling

Michael Morales

Andre Lima

Aliaskhab Khizriev

Lerone Murphy

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Torrez Finney

Rafael Estevam

Mario Pinto

Nurullo Aliev

Hyun Sung Park

Farid Basharat

Khamzat Chimaev

Tallison Teixeira

Ian Machado Garry

Bo Nickal

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tatsuro Taira

Muhammad Mokaev

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Payton Talbott

Danny Barlow

Jhonata Diniz

Stewart Nicoll

Clayton Carpenter

Jean Matsumoto

Oumar Sy

Wang Cong

Raffael Cerqueira

Daniel Marcos

Tatiana Suarez

Rei Tsuruya

Mick Parkin

Hyder Amil

The Legend of Zelda

Donkey Kong Country

Cyberpunk (including Orion, etc)

Animal Crossing

Splatoon

Pokémon

Super Mario

Plants vs. Zombies

Red Dead Redemption

Katamari (塊魂)

Super Smash Bros.

Dragon Quest

WarioWare

Grand Theft Auto

Pikmin

The Elder Scrolls

Tekken

Call of Duty

Halo

F-Zero

Luigi's Mansion

Mario Golf

Shantae

Fable

Microsoft Flight Simulator

Rhythm Heaven

Tales

virtua fighter

Dark Souls

Punch-Out!!

Fallout

Pokémon Snap

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street)

Arms

Bayonetta

Nintendogs

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street), in North America

The Sims (excluding MySims)

Kid Icarus

Tomodachi Life/Tomodachi Collection

Homestuck/Hiveswap

Denpa Men

Golden Sun

Labo

Pokémon Pinball

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Donkey Kong Bananza

Blue Prince

Other

Split Fiction

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach

Ghost of Yotei

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond

Kingdom Come: Deliverance II

Mario Kart World

Civilization VII

Avowed

Hollow Knight: Silksong

Elden Ring Nightreign

Pokemon Legends: Z-A

Grand Theft Auto VI

Slay the Spire II

Wanderstop

Monster Hunter Wilds

Doom: The Dark Ages

Kirby

Pit

Captain Falcon

Donkey Kong

Lucina

Toon Link

Luigi

Jigglypuff

Mario

Link

Samus

Pikachu

Ness

Peach

Bowser

Ice Climbers

Sheik

Zelda

Dr. Mario

Pichu

Falco

Marth

Ganondorf

Roy

Meta Knight

Zero Suit Samus

Wario

Sonic

King Dedede

R.O.B

Wolf

Villager

Shulk

Bowser Jr.

Duck Hunt

Ryu

Cloud

Simon Belmont

King K. Rool

Steve

Other

Yoshi

Fox

Young Link

Mewtwo

Mr. Game & Watch

Snake

Ike

PKMN Trainer

Diddy Kong

Lucas

Olimar

Lucario

Mega Man

Wii Fit Trainer

Rosalina & Luma

Little Mac

Greninja

Mii Fighter

Palutena

Pac-Man

Robin

Corrin

Bayonetta

Inkling

Ridley

Richter

Isabelle

Incineroar

Piranha Plant

Joker

Hero

Banjo-Kazooie

Terry Bogard

Paper Mario

Octoling

Waluigi

Psycho Mantis

Toad

Bandana Dee

Monster Hunter

Toadette

Tom Nook

Tails

Crash Bandicoot

Rayman

Gengar

Doctor Eggman

Prince Fluff

Chibi-Robo

Chun-Li

Kamek

Master Chief

Tetris piece (Tetromino)

Freddy Fazbear

Dino Piranha

Lubba

Spider-Man

竈門炭治郎 / Tanjiro Kamado

Mana-Chan

You, the player (You get physically sent into the game like in Tron)

The titular John Smash and Bob Smash

A third Mario brother

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

starship launch

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

dick cheney still alive at end of month

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

silksong game releases

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

NASDAQ hits an all time high

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

destiny goes on joe rogan

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

noam chomsky alive until end of month

trump leaves usa at least once

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

ukraine russia ceasefire

luffy finds the one piece

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

another indictment or charges announced against trump

israel hamas ceasefire

silksong game release date announced

usa troops enter lebanon

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

usa troops enter syria

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

Hurricane landfalls in Florida

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

Super Mario Bros 2 (that isn't largely based on Luigi's Mansion)

A movie where Donkey Kong is the primary focus, more than Mario and Luigi.

Tifa (Final Fantasy)

Chun-Li (Street Fighter)

Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Dva (Overwatch)

Lady Dimitrescu (Resident Evil)

Cortana (Halo)

Princess Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)

Sonic (Sonic the Hedgehog)

Palworld (player or any character)

Mario (Nintendo)

Master Chief (Halo)

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

dick cheney still alive at end of month

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

NASDAQ hits an all time high

starship launch

trump leaves usa at least once

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

Hurricane landfalls in Florida

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

ukraine russia ceasefire

israel hamas ceasefire

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

100F temperature in nyc at least one day

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

luffy finds the one piece

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

another indictment or charges announced against trump

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

destiny goes on joe rogan

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

usa troops enter lebanon

usa troops enter syria

silksong game releases

silksong game release date announced

Mario Voigt

Other

No one before 2031