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Prediction markets for Mars

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.28%chance

170147567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3743

452

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52%chance

452120313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11005

10745

Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.81%chance

23984929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2443

1835

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

7173926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

970

Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Mar 24, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

14541364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16583

9952

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.21%chance

10326560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

1520

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.88%chance

14626206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3832

578

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.44%chance

10026053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5568

1357

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.76%chance

17325218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11898

9090

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.52%chance

3213321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6849

490

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.36%chance

416090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

891

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.17%chance

385412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

973

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