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Prediction markets for Marte
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.04%chance
4852336
OptionVotes
3129
336
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
39.77%chance
9219446
OptionVotes
2552
1512
Will any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections?
Jan 20, 1:18 AMNov 4, 2:00 AM
17.98%chance
5610487
OptionVotes
2136
468
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
88.12%chance
566365
OptionVotes
2074
1119
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM
52.42%chance
936218
OptionVotes
1153
714
OptionVotes
1384
1384
OptionVotes
1989
503
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66%chance
532756
OptionVotes
1139
901
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
39.53%chance
161155
OptionVotes
1238
809
Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)
Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.67%chance
17499
OptionVotes
1159
920
Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
40.18%chance
11335
OptionVotes
1366
958
OptionVotes
1188
841