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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
Evan permabanned from Manifold
Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025
Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"
Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations
Charlie Kirk dies
Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive
Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026
The Trump Admin fails to issue any federal policies to protect campus speakers before 2027.
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments
Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.
NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired
Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting
South Park episode canceled (not delayed)
Another political assassination (either side)
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.
Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol
Information reward money paid
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated
Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down
arson attack against gender clinic
A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.
At least one furry convention canceled
Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination
Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.
TPUSA supports a gun control bill
Any Democratic politician is arrested
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
Any news organization is shut down
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed
80s-style moral panic over furries
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns
Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership
America becomes a one-party GOP state.
National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)
Kash Patel fired
South Park canceled
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store
5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12
Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)
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0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3000
333
OptionProbability
Dementia, stroke, or other non-infectious brain condition
Heart attack or other cardiac condition
"Natural causes" with no other cause given
Cancer
Any unambiguously homicidal injury (e.g. assassination by gunshot, polonium poisoning), but not including war, riot, coup, etc.
Other
Act of war, civil war, riot, coup, violent political unrest, martial law, etc.
(None; still alive at age 100)
Any unambiguously accidental injury (e.g. slip and fall in public)
Suicide or "apparent" suicide (e.g. Epstein would count)
Infection, sepsis, or other microbial condition
Any "plausibly deniable" injury by infamous means (e.g. falling out a window like a Russian oligarch)
Judicially-imposed death penalty (martial law doesn't count)
Explosive diarrhea
Assassination by Eskimo separatist
32
15
14
10
10
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Orders nuclear strike on domestic soil
Attempts to dissolve Congress
Orders the assassination of a legislator
Orders the assassination of a judge
Orders military to seize voting machines
Starts a war with Canada
Starts civil war/presides over the start of a civil war
Declares himself President-for-life
Starts a war for Panama
Explicitly ignores a Supreme Court ruling
Pardons himself for federal crimes
Signs an executive order (Control)
Orders military invasion of Mexico
Suspends the Constitution
Orders military to ignore Congress
Attempts to abolish the Supreme Court
Nukes foreign soil
Starts a war for Greenland
Declares martial law nationwide
Orders military to arrest political opponents
Refuses to leave office after term ends
Suspends all elections indefinitely
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48
45
31
30
30
20
16
16
16
11
11
11
7
7
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1999
500
OptionVotes
YES
NO
171
58
OptionVotes
YES
NO
269
111
OptionProbability
>100K protest in DC
Protest is met with lethal violence (1+ death)
Impeachment by House (>50%) but not Senate (>66%)
Martial Law declared
Impeachment by House (>50%) and Senate (>66%)
Trump loses power
Civil War
Military coup
75
43
38
28
12
12
7
6
OptionProbability
Until resolution date
Until EOY 2026
Until EOY 2024
Until EOY 2025
72
58
0
0
OptionProbability
Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only
April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)
May 4 - June 30, 2026
July 1 - December 31, 2026
January 1 - June 30, 2027
July 1, 2027 or later
Never announces national elections
Other
March 15 - April 15, 2026
Before March 15, 2026
48
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
186
138
