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Prediction markets for Martin Best

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

39.01%chance

7330993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

615

Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?

Aug 3, 12:23 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

25.67%chance

303447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

806

Why is ice cream consumption correlated with reduced diabetes risk?

Sep 19, 2:44 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM

453282

OptionProbability

Substitution effects

Demographics

Not correlated

Reverse causation

Other

Nutritional value

Slow eating

Emotional wellbeing

35

19

14

11

9

5

4

3

Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2028-03-23?

Mar 24, 2:22 AMMar 23, 9:17 PM

5.49%chance

141420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

854

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

71077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?

Oct 20, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

28.41%chance

12278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

138

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

When will Vladimir Putin die?

Mar 18, 7:37 PM

70

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