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Prediction markets for Matthew

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.97%chance

19670827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5512

1703

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38%chance

3322102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7072

3331

Will Matthew McConaughey ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 5, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.04%chance

432445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

805

Will Matthew McConaughey run for the Senate or the House of Representatives or governor before 2050?

Jan 14, 7:34 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

34.98%chance

15757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

985

Will Matthew Rognlie (https://sites.northwestern.edu/rognlie/) win the Nobel Prize in Economics in his lifetime?

Sep 14, 12:48 PMSep 21, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Matthew Stanley Meselson reach age 100

Jun 27, 8:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.09%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032

Dec 23, 7:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will Matthew McAteer have girlfriend by EOY2028?

Aug 25, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?

Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Who will win a 2027 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences?

Oct 15, 2:17 PMOct 11, 6:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Ariel Pakes

Steven T. Berry

Susan Athey

Ernst Fehr

Richard Blundell

David Autor

Matthew Rabin

Partha Dasgupta

Hal Varian

Janet Currie

7

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

"Prediction Markets in Journalism" with Dylan Matthews and Scott Alexander - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:05 PM

00

Is Matthew Gentzel the highest integrity person ever?

Feb 26, 11:16 PM

60

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