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Prediction markets for Matthew

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

418158166

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

JB Pritzker

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Raphael Warnock

Jon Ossoff

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Ro Khanna

Jacob Frey

Mark Cuban

Cory Booker

James Talarico

Jamie Dimon

Colin Allred

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Tim Walz

Connor Duffy

[Invalid - Duplicate]

Yishan Wong

Adolf Hitler

Michelle Obama

Andrew Cuomo

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Elissa Slotkin

Rahm Emanuel

Jill Biden

No one

Jasmine Crockett

After the American Civil war 2, a military hero recognized for contributions during the conflict will be nominated

Chris Van Hollen

Hakeem Jeffries

Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

Zohran Mamdani

Noam Chomsky

Mikie Sherrill

Taylor Swift

Liz Cheney

Kirsten Gillibrand

Ezra Klein

Andrew Yang

Invalid

Josh Green

Chris Murphy

Bernie Sanders

John Stewart

George Washington

Paris Hilton

Donald Trump

Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

George Clooney

27

13

9

7

6

6

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.72%chance

19470814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5721

1690

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

40.66%chance

2812529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1190

462

Will Matthew McConaughey ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 5, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.59%chance

412102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

797

Who wins the Avi Vs. Matthew (Bentham's Bulldog) debate on fine tuning?

May 30, 6:03 PMMar 31, 6:00 PM

101774

OptionProbability

Avi

Matthew

70

30

Will Matthew McConaughey run for the Senate or the House of Representatives or governor before 2050?

Jan 14, 7:34 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

34.98%chance

15757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

985

Will Matthew Rognlie (https://sites.northwestern.edu/rognlie/) win the Nobel Prize in Economics in his lifetime?

Sep 14, 12:48 PMSep 21, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Matthew Stanley Meselson reach age 100

Jun 27, 8:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.09%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will Matthew Barnett have a child by EOY 2032

Dec 23, 7:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will Matthew McAteer have girlfriend by EOY2028?

Aug 25, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?

Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

"Prediction Markets in Journalism" with Dylan Matthews and Scott Alexander - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:05 PM

00

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