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Top stories

Elizabeth May Plans Exit as Green Party Leader Before Next Election

Elizabeth May Plans Exit as Green Party Leader Before Next Election

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for May

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

659864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

912

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.47%chance

387402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2643

378

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

38.67%chance

181762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

24.54%chance

24710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

868

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

56.04%chance

15495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1343

576

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?

Jun 9, 12:31 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

46.25%chance

9409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

928

New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?

May 31, 10:06 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

33.53%chance

4220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

570

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