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Mayer News

    Prediction markets for Mayer

    Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

    Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM
    72.28%chance
    2411553

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1615

    619

    Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

    Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    262614

    OptionProbability

    Other

    [None - Position will cease to exist]

    Mira Murati

    Elon Musk

    Sam Altman

    Greg Brockman

    Bret Taylor

    Larry Summers

    Adam D'Angelo

    Andrej Karpathy

    Eric Schmidt

    Paul Graham

    Peter Thiel

    Wojciech Zaremba

    Ben Horowitz

    Jessica Livingston

    Marc Benioff

    Sheryl Sandberg

    Tim Cook

    John Doerr

    Reed Hastings

    Fei Fei Lee

    Alexander Wang

    George Hotz

    Brad Lightcap

    Bob Mcgrew

    Peter Welinder

    Jason Kwon

    Mark Chen

    Helen Toner

    Ilya Sutskever

    Emmett Shear

    Dario Amodei

    Satya Nadela

    Jeff Bezos

    Demis Hassabis

    Robin Li

    Clément Delangue

    Lila Ibrahim

    Alex Karp

    Reid Hoffman

    Raquel Urtasun

    Marc Andreessen

    Aidan Gomez

    Sandra Rivera

    Gary Marcus

    Jaime Teevan

    Sundar Pichai

    Jack Clark

    Anna Makanju

    Shane Legg

    Andrew Ng

    Pushmeet Kohli

    Yann LeCun

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Yoshua Bengio

    Hinton

    Marissa Mayer

    Spencer Rascoff

    Garry Tan

    51

    12

    5

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding?

    Aug 26, 5:38 PMDec 31, 6:36 PM
    141002

    OptionProbability

    Patrick Mahomes

    Sabrina Carpenter

    Selena Gomez

    Andy Reid

    Margaret Qualley

    Lana Del Rey

    Post Malone

    Gary Lightbody

    Miley Cyrus

    Zoe Kravitz

    Blake Lively

    Oprah Winfrey

    Martha Stewart

    Adam Sandler

    Lena Dunham

    Jay Z

    Kendrick Lamar

    John Mayer

    Kim Kardashian

    Ivanka Trump

    94

    94

    92

    90

    83

    61

    55

    50

    50

    43

    38

    24

    24

    24

    24

    17

    17

    17

    12

    5

    Which musicians will release studio albums in 2026?

    Jan 1, 3:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
    14640

    OptionProbability

    Dermot Kennedy

    Olivia Rodrigo

    Taylor Swift (including re-recordings)

    Phoebe Bridgers

    Boris

    Bad Bunny

    John Mayer

    Taylor Swift (excluding re-recordings)

    98

    98

    79

    72

    67

    59

    41

    11

    Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

    Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    59.08%chance
    360

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    120

    83

    Will Aaron Mayer (https://foresight.org/fellowship/2023-fellow-aaron-mayer/) have KIDS by EOY 2034?

    Jan 23, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    61%chance
    013

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    63

    40

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