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Prediction markets for Mayes

Total mana purchases in USD (Apr 8 - May 8)

Apr 10, 1:24 AMApr 10, 6:59 AM

1668457

OptionProbability

Above 500

Above 1,000

Above 2,000

Above 5,000

Above 10,000

Above 25,000

Above 50,000

100

100

100

100

6

1

1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Apr 10, 4:26 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

20755177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

624

Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Apr 30, 3:51 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.1%chance

6210092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

639602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

953

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?

May 1, 6:50 PMMay 10, 11:59 PM

60.39%chance

738917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

810

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

44.29%chance

266835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

369

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Apr 25, 1:13 AMApr 25, 6:59 AM

86255

OptionProbability

Below $500,000

$500,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$3,000,000 - $4,000,000

Above $4,000,000

44

18

15

10

9

5

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

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