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Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

9.46%chance

519197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4122

120

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?

Nov 3, 7:50 PMMay 1, 6:50 PM

47.1%chance

202543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

944

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.35%chance

422502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1902

526

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

38.67%chance

181762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

34.56%chance

15479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

866

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

54.99%chance

14475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

592

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?

Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM

54.17%chance

5233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

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