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Prediction markets for McMillan

Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?

Sep 5, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.92%chance

24826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

89

Who trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?

Aug 11, 1:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13719

OptionProbability

Anthropic first

OpenAI first

Neither trades in 2026

98

5

4

How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 2:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10566

OptionProbability

630–659

≤599

600–629

700+

660–699

38

27

21

9

6

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.24%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026?

Aug 11, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

12258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

97

Will the cheapest 32GB DDR5 kit still cost $500+ at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 1:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

6206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will AI produce a proof of finite-time blow-up for the unforced Navier–Stokes equations before 2027?

Sep 9, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.18%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

88

Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own?

Sep 3, 4:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.74%chance

7108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?

Aug 11, 1:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.93%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will the US and China announce an AI incident notification mechanism at the Trump–Xi summit?

Sep 21, 8:22 AMOct 1, 4:59 AM

22.19%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

80

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