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Prediction markets for McMillan

Will the cheapest 32GB DDR5 kit still cost $500+ at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 1:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.64%chance

181612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

34

Who trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?

Aug 11, 1:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15983

OptionProbability

Anthropic first

Neither trades in 2026

OpenAI first

91

20

3

Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?

Sep 5, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.74%chance

25831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

94

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

17769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

580

17

Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026?

Aug 11, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.77%chance

15287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will AI produce a proof of finite-time blow-up for the unforced Navier–Stokes equations before 2027?

Sep 9, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.26%chance

9224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

94

Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?

Aug 11, 1:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.1%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Trump move the White House press corps out of the West Wing briefing room by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 26, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

45

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