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Prediction markets for Melinda Gates

Who has received USAID funding?

Feb 5, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

123398

OptionProbability

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

Axios

Wired

CNN

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

The New York Times

Wikimedia Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Sierra Club

Black Lives Matter

Greenpeace

Hamas

41

38

36

34

32

30

30

30

30

28

25

25

21

21

20

18

13

13

12

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.97%chance

10245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

227

Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.86%chance

10207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

199

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.7%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

221

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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