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Prediction markets for Metri

Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?

Oct 19, 12:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.15%chance

283724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2398

808

Will I aquire over 1 metric ton of Tungsten by 2028?

Jun 10, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.55%chance

13908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

524

Will the US convert to the metric system before 2050?

Aug 25, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.96%chance

23670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

911

Given that LK-99 is a rt/ap superconductor, will its average market price in 2028 be below $5,000.00 / metric ton?

Aug 6, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.37%chance

9308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

110

Will at least one U.S. State or the Federal Government mandate converting road signs to the metric system before 2035?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

963

Will "Transformer Circuit Faithfulness Metrics Are ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 9, 1:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time

Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:57 PM

69.9%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

106

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

May 5, 10:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.14%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

104

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.29%chance

365

OptionProbability

YES

NO

374

215

Will "Transformer Circuit Faithfulness Metrics Are ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 9, 1:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Are HLI Metrics against AGI a Red Herring?

Apr 6, 3:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.52%chance

429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

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