OptionProbability
At least 2
At least 1
At least 3
At least 4
At least 5
0
At least 6
At least 7
At least 8
At least 9
At least 10
79
78
71
42
25
23
12
10
8
7
5
Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine
Black swan geopolitical events 🦢
Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories
Decisive Russian military victory
Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible
Collapse of Ukraine's government
68
53
52
46
29
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