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Prediction markets for Mike Elias

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.56%chance

5714482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5202

192

Melania’s hat will become a trend

Jan 20, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.49%chance

228454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2533

395

Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.72%chance

316182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1983

504

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.18%chance

244133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4444

2227

Opinion poll: Was the 2020 election “free and fair”?

Jan 20, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.95%chance

211918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2473

404

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

What % of respondents to this question will believe "UFOs are alien spacecraft" on January 1, 2030?

Feb 24, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.48%chance

7271

OptionProbability

YES

NO

351

308

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"

Dec 16, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.41%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Who is the most “convinceable” Manifold user? (ie most willing to change their mind on difficult topics)

Jan 20, 7:57 PM

00

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