OptionProbability
Arizona 1
Arizona 6
California 3
California 9
California 13
California 21
California 22
California 27
California 41
California 45
California 47
California 49
Colorado 8
Connecticut 5
Florida 23
Illinois 17
Indiana 1
Iowa 1
Iowa 3
Michigan 3
Michigan 4 · Sean McCann (D) v. Bill Huizenga (R)
Michigan 7 · William Lawrence (D) v. Tom Barrett (R)
Michigan 8
Michigan 10 · Christina Hines (D) v. Michael Bouchard (R)
Montana 1 · Sam Forstag (D) v. Aaron Flint (R)
Nebraska 2
Nevada 1
Nevada 3
Nevada 4
New Hampshire 1
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 5
New Jersey 7
New Jersey 9
New Mexico 2
New York 3
New York 4
New York 17 · Cait Conley (D) v. Mike Lawler (R)
New York 18
New York 19
New York 22
North Carolina 1 · Don Davis (D) v. Laurie Buckhout (R)
Ohio 1
Ohio 9 · Marcy Kaptur (D) v. Derek Merrin (R)
Ohio 13
Oregon 5
Pennsylvania 1 · Bob Harvie (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 8 · Paige Cognetti (D) v. Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)
Pennsylvania 10
Pennsylvania 17
Texas 15 · Bobby Pulido (D) v. Monica De La Cruz (R)
Texas 28
Texas 34
Virginia 1 · Shannon Taylor (D) v. Rob Wittman (R)
Virginia 2
Virginia 7
Virginia 10
Washington 3
Washington 8
Wisconsin 1 · Mitchell Berman (D) v. Bryan Steil (R)
Wisconsin 3 · Rebecca Cooke (D) v. Derrick Van Orden (R)
Arizona 2 · Jonathan Nez (D) v. Eli Crane (R)
Alaska at-large
California 40
Colorado 3 · Dwayne Romero (D) v. Jeff Hurd (R)
Florida 13
Maine 2 · Matt Dunlap (D) v. Paul LePage (R)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Dems win Florida and/or Texas Governor
Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state
Democrats win Georgia and Nevada Governor election
Abdul el Sayed wins by 1.5% or more
Associated Press or NBC make house control projection before 11.01pm Tues Nov 3
This market has 100+ total traders by 11.59pm tues Nov 3 eastern time.
Maine senate election is called before Alaska senate (associated press)
James Talarico declared winner by associated press before 9am Wednesday by associated press?
Democrats win Kansas and Iowa senate
Democrats win Kansas and Texas governor
Democrats win Texas Governor
Susan Collins AND Mike Lawler Lose?
Democrats win 52 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)
Democrats win 53 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)
Any senate race NOT yet called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed?
Democrats win 55 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)
Ca Wealth tax (prop 40) fails by 5% or more
Abdul El Sayed and James Talarico both win by 2.5% or more
Mary Peltola AND James Talarico win
Any US house race has a margin of victory of 1000 votes or less
Any US house race has a margin of victory of 500 votes or less
Scott colom wins by 2000 votes or more
Mississippi is closest senate race (by margin of victory)
Democrats win 56 senate seats or more (ap projections)
Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 20
Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 17
Scott colom wins by 3500 votes or more
Mississippi senate is called before Alaska senate? (Associated press)
Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 14
Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less
Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 10
Scott colom wins by 5000 votes or more
Abdul el Sayed wins by 7.5% or more
Mary Peltola gets 50% or more in first round of Alaska senate
Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 8
Scott colom wins by 7500 votes or more
A Tweet from @ AbdulElSayed gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours.
A tweet from @ Jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours
Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote
Scott colom wins by 10000 votes or more
Any Republican senate candidate says the election was stolen, cheated, or fraud stopped them from winning, before Nov 6 11.59pm ET
Trump falsely declares victory/says his candidate won in a race they did not (before 11.59pm et Nov 6)
Mary Peltola wins by more than Troy Jackson (resolves on final round results)
Abdul El Sayed wins by 8% or more
Abdul el Sayed mentions Haley stevens by name in election night speech (or first speech next day if none)
BOTH Maine and Alaska senate not called by 11.59pm Eastern Wed Nov 4
Mike rogers claims the Michigan election was stolen/rigged/cheated/inconsistent before 11.59pm Thursday Nov 5
Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota?
Adam Hamilton (Kansas) wins by more than Abdul el sayed
Alaska senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Wed Nov 4
Donald trump POSTS 10 times on truth social on Wednesday Nov 4, eastern time. Posts only, retruths don’t count.
La Mayor election called by Ap or NBC by 11.59pm pacific time Nov 4?
Mississippi senate is called before 11.59pm eastern Nov 4. (Associated press)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
98
98
95
94
94
92
89
80
76
73
65
63
40
32
31
30
19
19
14
13
13
9
9
6
5
5
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Florida 25 Jared Moskowitz(D) v Scott Singer(R)
Michigan 7 William Lawrence (D) v Tom Barrett(R)
Michigan 10 Christina Hines (D) v Michael Bouchard Jr. (R)
North Carolina 1 Don Davis (D) v Laurie Buckhout(R)
North Carolina 11 Jamie Ager(D) v Jennifer Balkcom(R)
New York 17 Cait Conley(D) v Mike Lawler (R)
Ohio 9 Marcy Kaptur (D) v Derek Merrin (R)
Pennsylvania 8 Paige Cognetti(D) v Rob Bresnahan Jr (R)
Texas 35 Johnny Garcia (D) v Carlos De La Cruz (R)
Wisconsin 3 Rebecca Cooke(D) v Derrick Van Orden (R)
Florida 14 Kathy Castor(D)vs Mike Beltran (R)
Florida 22 Pia Dandiya(D) v Casey Askar (R)
Iowa 2 Lindsay James(D) v Joe Mitchell (R)
Michigan 4 Sean McCann(D) v Bill Huizenga (R)
97
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Ritchie Torres
Letitia James
Zach Iscol
Antonio Delgado
Andrew Cuomo
Mike Lawler
Lee Zeldin
Michael Ring
74
7
4
4
4
2
2
2
1
