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Prediction markets for Mills

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

217172957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

18679660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4803

133

Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 8:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

20%chance

9024149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

884

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Which millenium problem will be solved first?

Feb 17, 9:26 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

483795

OptionProbability

Navier-Stokes problem

BSD Conjecture

Riemann hypothesis

Yang-Mills Existence and mass gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

44

17

14

11

8

6

Will Tesla deliver over 2 million vehicles in the calendar year 2025?

Feb 29, 3:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

193426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

6

[MLS Rumor Mill] What newcomers will make an appearance for a Major League Soccer team in 2025?

Dec 6, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12839

OptionProbability

Son Heung-Min

Neymar

Joshua Kimmich

Karim Benzema

Paul Pogba

Antoine Griezmann

Angel Di Maria

Sergio Ramos

Luca Modric

Robert Lewandowski

Kevin De Bruyne

77

17

17

12

7

5

3

3

2

2

1

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?

Dec 16, 7:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13376

OptionProbability

Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness

The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

The Riemann hypothesis

The Hodge conjecture

Yang–Mills existence and mass gap

P versus NP

35

22

13

12

12

7

For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6312

OptionProbability

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Hodge Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap

P vs NP

85

85

85

85

82

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap be proven?

Sep 8, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

62.47%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

114

Which of Charles A. Beard's four lessons will Manifold think applies most to humanity in the year 2025?

Jan 15, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

222

OptionProbability

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad with power

The mills of God grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly small

The bee fertilizes the flower it robs

When it is dark enough, you can see the stars

49

20

16

16

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