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Prediction markets for Milner

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.93%chance

11255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

344

223

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

52.08%chance

8132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

178

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

145

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

⚽Will James Milner become a player with the most Premier League games?

Jan 2, 11:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.01%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

87

29

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

⚽Will James Milner become a player with the most Premier League games?

Jan 3, 12:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34%chance

128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

⚽Will James Milner become a player with the most Premier League games?

Jan 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.43%chance

018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68

37

⚽Will James Milner become a player with the most Premier League games?

Jan 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

67

37

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