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Prediction markets for Min

MiniMax (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:02 PM

176733565

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

92.28%chance

75857043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362974

30273

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148055

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.17%chance

18363262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

560

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18772

5327

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

66.6%chance

75182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14121

7082

"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"

Aug 3, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.44%chance

434268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

972

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.9%chance

451869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

717

Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

71571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

793

Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 3, 1:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.46%chance

8750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

940

3+min long YouTube video of Alexey Guzey OR Jose Luis Ricon OR Lucas Chu OR Sigil Wen dancing Gangnam Style by EOY2027

Feb 2, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is JOSE LUIS RICON Min-maxxing?

Feb 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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