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Prediction markets for Min

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

96.55%chance

58498723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

554784

19784

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48109764

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.81%chance

3515418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10448

9571

MindWaves Stock

Oct 30, 12:04 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

12713208

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3176

1665

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

66.6%chance

75182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14121

7082

"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"

Aug 3, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.44%chance

434268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

972

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.42%chance

441839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

687

Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 3, 1:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.46%chance

8750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

940

Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.81%chance

5715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

744

3+min long YouTube video of Alexey Guzey OR Jose Luis Ricon OR Lucas Chu OR Sigil Wen dancing Gangnam Style by EOY2027

Feb 2, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is JOSE LUIS RICON Min-maxxing?

Feb 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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