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Prediction markets for Min

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.12%chance

22089937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16786

850

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3757067

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

32

28

25

15

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.86%chance

13644298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

736

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.84%chance

10829520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5240

967

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025

Sep 23, 10:43 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

24.86%chance

9823609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

280

MindWaves Stock

Oct 30, 12:04 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

12713208

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3176

1665

"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"

Aug 3, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.44%chance

434268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

972

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.47%chance

411759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

768

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

91226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10504

9520

3+min long YouTube video of Alexey Guzey OR Jose Luis Ricon OR Lucas Chu OR Sigil Wen dancing Gangnam Style by EOY2027

Feb 2, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is JOSE LUIS RICON Min-maxxing?

Feb 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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