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Prediction markets for Misa

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Mar 24, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

6622099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2162

906

Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 2:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.47%chance

328923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

887

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

Mar 24, 5:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.5%chance

406502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

817

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?

Jan 26, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.55%chance

384293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2048

728

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Nov 8, 10:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.8%chance

171082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

938

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?

Nov 8, 10:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.34%chance

10600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

953

Will "Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 13, 10:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.54%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

If a misaligned ASI kills everyone, how will it kill the last 100k people?

Dec 31, 1:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5137

OptionProbability

Other

synthetic bioweapons

nuclear weapons

bullets, shaped charges, blades, and other conventional munitions and edged weapons

nanotech/diamondoid bacteria

nerve agents

directed energy weapons

38

21

11

11

9

7

4

My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues

Mar 18, 7:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.22%chance

692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

150

Will "Model Organisms for Emergent Misalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 3:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Narrow Misalignment is Hard, Emergent Misalig..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 1:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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