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Prediction markets for Morales

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.66%chance

351469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

978

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

381457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

871

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

21

14

14

12

8

6

6

6

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a quarter of Americans morally accept polygamy in 2026, according to Gallup?

Jul 29, 4:27 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

6.4%chance

13684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

26

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.37%chance

26576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

821

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

55.22%chance

22530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

931

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.67%chance

25505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2026 than in 2025, according to Gallup?

Jul 29, 4:28 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

71.76%chance

17349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

On January 1st 2027, will I think Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales is obviously a US citizen?

Feb 13, 11:08 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

80.95%chance

3204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

49

There will be a major morality scandal around a top English language pingpong announcer before 2041

May 5, 4:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.98%chance

787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

123

Will "Schelling Goodness, and Shared Morality as a Goal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 3, 11:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.17%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

988

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