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Prediction markets for Morales

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

381457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

871

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

53.29%chance

351419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

928

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Lightcone Infrastructure

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Center on Long-Term Risk

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

17

13

13

13

10

9

6

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a quarter of Americans morally accept polygamy in 2026, according to Gallup?

Jul 29, 4:27 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

2.06%chance

11656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

689

15

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.37%chance

26576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

821

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.2%chance

24485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

50.5%chance

21430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

969

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2026 than in 2025, according to Gallup?

Jul 29, 4:28 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

86.35%chance

13242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

40

There will be a major morality scandal around a top English language pingpong announcer before 2041

May 5, 4:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.98%chance

787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

123

Does the internal structure of an agent matter for whether or not it has moral worth?

Sep 4, 3:35 AM

70

Does the capacity to suffer make an entity a moral patient?

Oct 5, 12:07 AM

110

Is pure effective altruism moral?

Jun 25, 1:26 AM

60

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